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23.04.2024
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Latest news
News and Articles
March 2024 on the markets
16.04.2024
Global stock markets gained in March, closing the first quarter of the year with strong gains across the board. Only the Chinese and Hong Kong markets are still struggling to rebound. Expectations of interest rate cuts in the US boosted shares although the pace of cuts is likely to be slower than the market had hoped for in the beginning of the year as a result of sticky inflation and a resilient labor market.
February 2024 on the markets
15.03.2024
Global stock markets gained in February with emerging markets performing strongly as Chinese shares experienced a rebound. By contrast, in fixed income yields were generally higher, meaning prices fell, as investors pushed further the expected timeframe for central banks to cut interest rates on sticky inflation and a resilient labor market.
January 2024 on the markets
15.02.2024
January was a modestly positive month for developed markets, supported by some strong corporate earnings and the sentiment that central banks may soon cut interest rates. By the end of the month that sentiment was crushed in the US as a wave of strong data was published.
December 2023 on the markets
15.01.2024
2023 was a fairly good year with most stock indices closing the year with double digit gains, primarily delivered by a late rally in November and December on anticipation that major central banks will start cutting interest rates in 2024 as inflation continues to slide, albeit more gradually.
November 2023 on the markets
15.12.2023
In November global shares rallied, undoing four consecutive monthly losses, in the best monthly market performance in 3 years. The turnaround occured when US October inflation data was published, showing that the consumer price index (CPI) had fallen to 3,2% year-on-year from 3,7% in September. The release raised hopes that inflation is on course to fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that further interest rate hikes may not be needed.
October 2023 on the markets
16.11.2023
Global shares fell for the fourth consecutive month in October amid worries that US interest rates may remain higher for longer, given still strong inflation and labour market. Bonds also fell, with 10-year Treasury yields rising sharply, temporarily testing 5%, the highest level in 17 years.
September 2023 on the markets
13.10.2023
After a strong first half of 2023 markets closed September and the third quarter overall in negative territory. Government bonds also declined in the quarter, with yields rising. Commodities were a notable outperformer with energy gaining amid oil production cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
August 2023 on the markets
07.09.2023
US equities declined in August with the Dow Jones, S&P500 and Nasdaq Composite losing 1,77%, 2,36% and 2,17% respectively. The dollar gained 1,38% against the Euro to close at 1,0841 USD/EUR. Investors' confidence that the Federal Reserve would stop its cycle of raising the interest rate after July's increase took a hit as FED policy makers are divided on the next steps.
June 2023 on the markets
13.07.2023
Global shares climbed in June, bringing the second quarter as a whole to a positive end. The main exception was China and Hong Kong – although the Hang Seng index added 3,74% in June, the index dropped 7,27% from April through June combined on disappointing economic data despite post-COVID reopening and weakening investor appetite, in part due to geopolitical tensions.
May 2023 on the markets
09.06.2023
Global shares fell in May. However, there was a marked difference between sectors, as enthusiasm over AI (Artificial Intelligence) boosted technology stocks, particularly chipmakers.
April 2023 on the markets
09.05.2023
US equities made limited gains in April despite continued stress surrounding the banking sector after the collapse of Silicon Vally Bank in early March. This time the collapse of First Republic bank looked unavoidable by the end of April but it was eventually acquired by JPMorgan in a deal with the US government.
A brief history of US recessions
21.04.2023
Over the past 50 years there have been six recessions in the United States, not including the recent COVID-19 »recession«, and I'm placing that between quotation marks because in my view it really wasn't a recession as I'll explain later. Each recession is unique in its own way.
March 2023 on the markets
14.04.2023
Over the course of five days in early March, three small- to mid-size U.S. banks failed, triggering a sharp decline in global bank stock prices and swift response by regulators.
February 2023 on the markets
17.03.2023
After a strong start in January, markets were mixed in February with European indices adding small gains and US markets booking modest losses, countered by the US dollar gaining against the Euro. Hong Kong and China were the main underperforming markets with the Hang Seng index dropping 9,41%.
January 2023 on the markets
14.02.2023
Stock markets started 2023 on a strong note with gains across global equities. China's re-opening after dropping the zero-Covid policy in late December helped push the advance. Inflation continues to ease in several major regions, further adding to market optimism as central banks may be close to the peak of their rate hiking. Global government bond yields fell in January on the inflation news. The Bank of Canada hiked rates by 25 basis points but signalled a pause in its hiking cycle, while the Federal R
Year 2022 on the markets and outlook for 2023
19.01.2023
2022 was a pretty rought year. Because of a slowdown in consumer spending and recovering supply chains, we expected the elevated inflation to spike late in the Spring and then gradually normalize but nonetheless remain above the historical average by the end of the year. However the invasion of Russia into Ukraine in February considerably altered the macroeconomic landscape.
November 2022 on the markets
19.12.2022
Shares gained in November with China and Hong Kong strongly outperforming their European and American market counterparts.
October 2022 on the markets
15.11.2022
In October global developed markets performed strongly, canceling out the September losses. The main focus remained on inflation and central bank policies, but it was also the month of quarterly earnings announcements.
September 2022 on the markets
17.10.2022
In September US markets continued to slide as inflation remained resilient. Even though inflation ticked lower for the second time – from 9,1% in June to 8,5% in July to 8,3% in August – core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) picked up pace again. After declining each month since April core inflation increased from 5,9% in July to 6,3% in August. As a result the Federal Reserve once again reiterated its commitment to continue raising the interest rate for as long as needed to bring inflati
August 2022 on the markets
19.09.2022
Stock markets started August strong after the rally in July but, after the speech of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, the market turned around and initiated a correction as it became clear that further substantial interest rate rises may be needed to tame inflation. The correction lasted throughout the month, leading the markets in red for August.
July 2022 on the markets
17.08.2022
Economic data in July provided further evidence of a slowing global economy. Inflation continued to soar to new highs, central banks raised interest rates and GDP growth numbers were negative.
June 2022 on the markets
15.07.2022
Equity markets sold off heavily in June after US inflation came in above expectations, which prompted the Federal Reserve to hike its overnight rate by 75 basis points, the largest rate hike since 1994. More interest rate increases are expected.
May 2022 on the markets
14.06.2022
May was a rather turbulent month on the markets which saw American markets book its largest single-day decline in 2 years. Nonetheless, as the month progressed, volatility settled down and markets closed nearly unchanged. Debates are raging around inflation, while central banks are finally stepping up to subdue it.
April 2022 on the markets
13.05.2022
Even though the invasion in Ukraine is still ongoing, it no longer dominated the top economic news as for now gas and oil continues to flow from Russia despite global sanctions crippling the Russian economy.
March 2022 on the markets
19.04.2022
The war in Ukraine dominated the news and markets in March. Commodity prices soared given Russia is a key producer of several important commodities including oil, gas, and wheat. Russia and Ukraine account for around 30% of global wheat exports. Natural gas soared 28% to 5,642 MMBTU, in part on concern about security of supply from Russia which Europe heavily relies on. As the invasion began, Germany also suspended the approval of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia. Oil gained 4,76% to 100,28 doll
The war in Ukraine
09.03.2022
I was going to write an article about central bank policy in light of the high inflation, its impact on the economy and what to expect for the future, but then something happened what we hoped would be entirely avoided: Russia invaded Ukraine, causing a humanitarian disaster and sending the markets into turmoil. As a result this article will address the war from economic and investment perspective. Sadly it's unavoidable to write about it because it is currently driving the global news and markets and it
January 2022 on the markets
15.02.2022
As a new year begins, all eyes are focussed on central bank comments and decisions. Inflation worldwide continues to climb and it is up to the central banks to get it under control. It's no longer a question of »if« but rather »when«, »how many times« and »by how much« they will raise interest rates.
October 2021 on the markets
16.11.2021
After a negative September, global markets largely recovered in October, supported by encouraging corporate earnings and an easing of fears around China's property sector. Nonetheless energy prices continued to climb, adding continued upward pressure on inflation. Central banks however indicated they were prepared to withdraw monetary policy accommodation to counter the inflationary pressure and persisted elevated inflation is only transitory. In the United States economic data indicated a slowdown wit
September 2021 on the markets
15.10.2021
In September oil and gas prices soared, supply chain problems worsened, the Federal Reserve announced tapering and China's real estate company Evergrande spooked the markets. After dropping 7,37% to 68,5 dollars per barrel in August, oil gained 9,53% in September to close at 75,03 dollars per barrel. Hurricane Ida cut about 80% of the Mexican Gulf's offshore oil and gas production for more than a week and damaged platforms. The climb persisted throughout the month as global output disruptions have forc
August 2021 on the markets
21.09.2021
In August many different factors kept the markets on edge, but eventually managed to close the month in positive territory. The main factors are the strong employment numbers with the US reporting the addition of over 1 million jobs in July, and pushing the unemployment rate down to 5,4% from 5,9% in June, the lowest level since March 2020 when the covid-19 lockdowns kicked in. While the economy is growing at very strong rate, concerns of a slowdown remain. The Federal Reserve is considering to slow do
July 2021 on the markets
13.08.2021
In July strong corporate earnings and a continued economic recovery were overshadowed by concerns over Covid-19 Delta cases, calling into question if the economic growth momentum will be sustained. Even so, data continues to show the US economy as healthy. The FED acknowledged that the economy was making progress but that tapering (i.e. slowing the pace of asset purchases) would require additional improvements. Also inflation remains a risk but the FED maintained the view that this would be transitory. Ea
June 2021 on the markets
15.07.2021
Now that a sharp increase of inflation has become a reality, the next question is whether it is only a temporary spike or if this high inflation will sustain itself for a longer period of time and will affect economic growth. Is it the result of the economy reopening, increased demand and temporary supply shortages? Or could it transform into long-term inflation? The Federal Reserve persists it is only temporary and kept the interest rate close to zero. The market did shortly dip however as the FED sig
May 2021 on the markets
15.06.2021
The long anticipated jump in inflation has become a reality. On May 12 the US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that core inflation jumped by 0,9% in April, well above the anticipated 0,3% and the biggest monthly increase in nearly 40 years. Year over year, core inflation nearly doubled from 1,6% to 3,0%, also well above the anticipated 2,3% and at the highest level in 25 years. Core inflation excludes food and energy because their prices are much more volatile. A similar picture is developing around t
April 2021 on the markets
17.05.2021
April started with President Joe Biden's proposed 2,25 Trillion dollar infrastructure plan, described as »the single largest investment in American jobs since World War II«. Then plan that includes transport, drinking-water, broadband, manufacturing and construction infrastructure developments. These positives have boosted market confidence. However, as would be expected, Republicans are fully opposed to the plan and, as was the case with the previous $1,9 trillion pandemic relief plan, Biden may have to
March 2021 on the markets
16.04.2021
March was a month with overall solid gains in Europe and the United States. Yields on 10-year Treasure notes stabilized after strong gains since November last year, somewhat easing concerns on potential interest rate hikes. Rising bond yields have kept markets on edge so far this year on concerns that an economic recovery from COVID-19, combined with fiscal stimulus, could cause a spike in inflation from catch-up consumer demand when lockdowns end. The technology sector once again underperformed other
Should stock market investors fear inflation?
25.03.2021
Production of COVID vaccines is rapidly growing and expanding with more vaccine candidates in the pipeline. Vaccinations are administered in increasingly higher numbers with countries like the United Kingdom and United States among those with the highest vaccination rates so far. As restrictions are gradually being loosened, the economic recovery is all but certain to take shape throughout the remainder of 2021 and to get into full swing in 2022. The anticipation of this economic recovery already beca
February 2021 on the markets and monthly reports
16.03.2021
February was a bit of a rollercoaster with main stock indices booking solid gains early on in the month but then gradually selling off again during the second half. Nonetheless markets overall gained in February, erasing the small correction in late January and turning positive year to date. The Eurostoxx 50 gained 4,45%, the German DAX 2,63% and the French CAC40 5,63%. The Slovenian SBITOP also gained 2,38%. The UK FTSE index increased by a modest 1,19%, but the Pound Sterling gained a solid 3,17% aga