November 2025 was defined by strong volatility as markets navigated a government shutdown which finally came to a close on November 12 after a record-long 43-day stoppage. Also Federal Reserve (FED) expectations shifted. From November 12 through November 20, the S&P 500 plunged 4,5% as the government shutdown darkened economic data releases and consumer sentiment fell to near-record lows. The University of Michigan survey showed 71% of respondents expecting unemployment to rise, while the absence of the monthly payrolls report heightened uncertainty. However, from November 20 through month-end, markets staged a powerful 4.77% recovery as traders maintained confidence in a December Fed rate cut despite the data void. The S&P 500 Index eked out a modest 0,13% gain for the month, masking the significant intra-month swings.

The »Magnificent 7« tech giants posted a 1,12% decline, reflecting headwinds in the technology sector, along with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite dropping 1,51%. November sector leadership shifted dramatically toward defensive and cyclical value names. Health Care led with an impressive 9,29% gain, followed by Materials (+4.35%), Consumer Staples (+4.05%), and Energy (+2.63%).

Small caps outperformed large caps with the Russell 2000 index gaining 0,96%. Meanwhile the traditional Dow Jones Industrial index gained a modest 0,32%. Expectations are that one final interest rate cut will take place on December 10, a third interest rate cut by 0,25% this year.

Meanwhile the European Central Bank (ECB) has one more meeting where the interest rate is expected to remain at 2,00% as inflation remained just slightly above its 2% target rate even though the Eurozone unemployment rate ticked up to 6,4%, the highest level since July 2024.

The German DAX underperformed, dropping -0,51% while the French CAC index was essentially flat and the overall Eurostoxx 50 index added a modest 0,11%. The Slovene SBITOP index once again gave up some of its strong gains throughout the year, dropping  1,97% to close at 2428,99. In the UK, the FTSE index was also flat while the Pound Sterling gained a modest 0,10% against the Euro.

Japan's Nikkei index dropped 4,01% after adding a staggering 16,64%  in October, giving up some of its gains. The Yen also weakened to 181,11 Yen/EUR. The Hong Kong Hang Seng index lost a modest 0,18% as the US and China continue to bicker over trade and China's GDP growth fell to 4,8%, below their target of 5% annual growth as both Chinese consumption and trade issues weigh down on growth.

In part due to the expect FED rate cut, Gold remained strong and gained 6,47% to $4254 per ounce, remaining close to its all-time high. Silver however took the crown, adding 18,69% over the month.

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